Monday, June 30, 2008

You Can Make Stats Say Anything You Want

I couldn’t help but notice some things while glossing over Jeff’s painfully boring post. First was his take on Alfonso Soriano. “Alfonso Soriano is batting .233(14-60) against teams withabove .500 records. Throw out a 4 for 5 performance against the D’backs and he’s .182.” First of all I’d like to point out this is extremely faulty logic. If you can arbitrarily throw out a game in which he performed well, why can’t I throw one out in which he didn’t? Opening day, Soriano went 0-5. With this game “thrown out”, Soriano bats .254. Still not impressive, however it is acceptable considering he’s been playing this year injured and it’s the first half. It’s not like they’ve suffered thus far. Soriano is currently hitting .326 with runners on, and .322 with runners in scoring position. He already has a walk off hit this year. If anyone wants to question Soriano’s ability in the clutch, they should watch highlights of September of last year. The Cubs were in the midst of a division race, and Soriano hit .354, belting 14 homeruns. As a Cubs fan, Soriano is the least of my worries. Is the NL worse than the AL? Of course, no one doubts that at this point. Doesn’t mean every team is worse.

As Jeff was busy manipulating Cubs statistics, he conveniently glossed over his own team’s weaknesses. If you think of the AL over the last decade, what comes to mind? The Yankees and the Red Sox. 7 of the last 10 representatives from the AL in the World Series have been one of those two teams. Like usual, the Red Sox started this year hot while the Yankees started slowly. Both should make the playoffs unless the pesky Rays get in the way. Are the White Sox even a force in the AL? Well, they haven’t played the Red Sox yet, and lost a home series to the Yankees, giving up 7 runs a game in the process. The White Sox are 3-4 against the Rays, and 3-4 against the Angels. That puts the white sox at 6-8 against playoff teams in the AL. Do the White Sox have a great bullpen? Many would say yes. Do the White Sox have timely hitting? Some would also say yes. Yet the White Sox are under .500 in one run games. Don’t get me wrong, the white sox are a playoff team. But let’s not assume they are world series material just yet. After all, their two most effective pitchers, and their best hitter, have 0 playoff experience and have an average age of 24.5. Who would you bet on in the playoffs; Josh Beckett or John Danks?

My point is that every team in the league has issues, in fact every World Series champ has had flaws. The Cubs aren’t perfect, and the Sox aren’t perfect .

A Little Baseball

I couldn't miss an opportunity to point out that the White Sox just swept the Cubs. Glorious. Payback is an absolute bitch. With interleague play over, what did we learn?

We learned that the AL is significantly better than the NL. A lot of pundits were claiming that this was the year that the NL was finally better than the AL. They were making this prediction based off of stats, which pretty much proves that they weren't watching the game because anyone who watched National League baseball knew it was a joke. Good to see the AL finished with their best interleague record in years. Made me look smart.

The Cubs have cracks in their armor. Mostly consisting of being 3 pitchers short of a rotation, a bullpen on impending collapse, and hitters that can't defend the inside of the plate (Derek Lee being an exception). It will be interesting to see what happens when Bog Z and Soriano return. Zambrano's return will help, but I don't drink the Soriano kool-aid. I think his refusal to move out of the leadoff spot and bad defense kill the Cubs. So I took a closer look at his game log and found this little gem: Alfonso Soriano is batting .233 (14 for 60) against teams with above .500 records. Throw out a 4 for 5 performance against the D'Backs and he's down to .182. I don't see him coming back and helping all that much with the Cubs 11-16 record against +.500 teams. These are the kind of stats you don't get anywhere else.

I have a man crush on Alexei Ramirez and am in no way ashamed of it.

ESPN's Sunday Night baseball is god awful. SHUT UP JOE MORGAN! STOP TALKING! This seems like an appropriate time to point out that www.firejoemorgan.com is a wonderful website. And it's not just Joe, his broadcast partner Jon Miller is also awful. The two of them talk over the game, tell personal stories that have no relation to what's happening on the field, repeat themselves over and over, consistently get players' names wrong, and point out the obvious at every turn. I would hit the mute button, but sports are wrong without the sound. ESPN missed Carlos Quentin's tie breaking home run in the third because they needed to show graphics while telling the Josh Hamilton story for the millionth time. And the behind the plate view of the game should be banned, you can't see anything except the umpire's firmed rump. It all adds to an experience that equates to slamming one's head into the nearest wall. Only with the wall you don't have to listen to Joe Morgan.

Friday, June 27, 2008

Hello.

I'm going to introduce myself to the readers of BJ Happy Time Sports Blog. I see there have been 3 votes for the current poll. One of those votes is mine (Cher) and I'm assuming one of the other votes is Jeff's. This means we have one outside reader, a good start. I guess you have to start somewhwere, maybe one day I'll be well known enough for Buzz Bissinger to attack me just at the mere sight of me.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Draft Thoughts

For tonight's draft I had planned on going to a sports bar with my friends, enjoying some chicken wings, and getting excited about the Derrick Rose era of the Chicago Bulls. My family couldn't give me a car or ride even though I wanted to leave at the same time my parents were and would have in NO way interfered with their plans. Needless to say, I'm currently seething with rage. And the most illogical, and thus best, cure for being angry is to write down all your thoughts on the NBA draft. Don't believe me? Neither do I, but I'll do it anyway. The Bulls clock is counting down from 10, so we here we go:

First pick- Bulls take Derrick Rose. Rage subsides a little. Had we taken Beasley my TV would be laying broken in my backyard and I would be at a rage-aholics clinic. My name is Jeff and I'm addicted to rage-ahol.

Just found out the Nets traded Richard Jefferson for Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons. This is a batant attempt to clear cap before LeBron hits free agency in 2009 and Yi may develop into a nice complement for LeBron. This deal hinges on him coming to Brooklyn in '09, if he does it's a good trade for both sides. If he doesn't the Nets got hosed.

Second pick- Michael Beasley. Shocking. Say goodbye to Shawn Marion, and no the Bulls should not go after him as rumors indicate. Deng is already about as good Marion, and more valuable because he's younger and cheaper, and Marion would take minutes from either him or Tyrus. On an unrelated note, I'm excited to hear about Beasley's first South Beach Shenanigans, let's get the crew from The Rookie to keep following him.

Third pick- OJ Mayo. My only comment is that Ovinton J'Anthony is not a real name. Sorry on getting banished to Minnesota Ovinton.

Update: OJ was traded to Memphis for Kevin Love and Mike Miller. Good trade for both teams although Memphis now has too many young guards and Minnesota's front line is still undersized. That said, Love will make Jefferson, Miller, and Foye better while learning the white PF position from McHale. And Ovinton J'Anthony leaves Minnesota, that's always exciting.

Fourth pick- Russel Westbrook. Just kidding. Not really though. I don't agree with picking a combo guard who can't score at the fourth pick. Yes his defense is good, but I don't see a star player. Picture Chauncey Billups without the scoring.

Fifth pick- Kevin Love. I'm rooting for him. I don't care if he has love handles, cheesy facial hair, and isn't all too athletic, I think he can make an impact. Pairing him with a strong point guard like Conley will bring out his strenghts. He'll pick and pop for 14 a night, pull down 7, and get 3 assists. He may not be a superstar, but should be a nice player to have on your team.

Sixth pick- Danillo Galinari. His nickname is The Rooster. How long until Knicks fans start calling him by another name for a rooster? Confused? Here's a hint: it rhymes with clock and contains no "L"s. I say 1 month. I haven't seen enough of him to really comment, but the highlights of him were spectacularly unimpressive.

Seventh pick- Eric Gordon. He played poorly last year but Indiana wasn't exactly a winning situation. He'll be better than Westbrook, mark that down.

Eighth pick- Joe Alexander. He's a hustler and he's a winner. It's a shame Yi got traded because they could have had some fun conversations in Mandarin. That could have made a great sitcom, too. I feel cheated.

Ninth pick- DJ Augustin. Boy has Jerryd Bayless slipped. Augustin is small and is unfortunate in going to Charlotte. He would have benefitted from falling a little down to Portland, Golden State, or Phoenix.

Tenth pick- Brook Lopez. Brook Lopez and Yi Jianlian. Things got interesting in New Jersey. If they both develop, that's a really good front line. There's about a 25% percent chance of that happening, but your just buying time until LeBron anyway.

Eleventh pick- Jerryd Bayless. That's a pick you have to make, way to get a guy who could've gone 4 at 11. See you in the lottery next year Pacers.

Twelfth pick- Jason Thompson. Why did Ron Artest elect to stay in Sacramento. The Kings grab a bit of a project and start the rebuilding process. The Ron Artest Explosion Countdown begins. For your safety, I don't recommend visiting the Sacramento area for the next year or so. I don't know what reason you'd have to visit Sac-town, its nickname is Sac-town for goodness sake, so that shouldn't be too hard.

Thirteenth pick- Brandon Rush. He should make a very good sixth man for Portland. He can shoot, is clutch, and plays good defense. I like Rush and like the pick.

Fourteenth pick- Anthony Randolph. A project for Golden State. I thought they should have grabbed Robin Lopez for some toughness down low.

Dick Vitale came on my TV on the volume went off. I like referring to him as Uncle Chachi (pronounced chotch-ee).

Fifteenth pick- Robin Lopez. How do you think Shaq will react when some goofy haired scrapper with a girl's name starts stealing his minutes? I say not well.

Sixteenth pick- Marreese Speights. He's out of shape, but has size and skill. He shows flashes, but isn't consistent. He may in fact be Eddy Curry.

Seventeeth pick- Roy Hibbert. Low risk, low reward. He reminds me of Big Z on the Cavs, so there is hope that someone will vastly overpay him for having a moderately productive career. Toronto may have a potent front line with Hibbert, O'Neal, and Bosh. Or it could just as easily be Bosh playing all by himself like last year. I like the way they rolled the dice though.

Eighteenth pick- JaVale McGee. He's the son of a WNBA player so you know he can't dunk. He actually can, but you can't have a basketball artticle without taking some sort of shot at the W. I see a poor man's Tyson Chandler in McGee so he could be a contributor on a Wizard's team that featured an awful front line.

Portland trades Jarret Jack and Brandon Rush to Indiana for Jerryd Bayless and Ike Diogu. THAT JUST HAPPENED. What the hell Indiana!? You already have Tinsley and Ford, now you trade the steal of the draft to bring in another point guard? Jack can't shoot, I don't like his game at all. If you wanted Rush, just take him at 11 over Bayless. Why does everyone dislike Bayless so much? I see him in the Monta Ellis/Gilbert Arenas mold. He doesn't distribute well and isn't clutch, but Jarrett Jack backed up Steve Blake. Seriously, there had to be a better offer than that some where. Great trade for Portland, who can play Roy at the point and take pressure of Bayless. Portland now has a starting five of Bayless, Roy, Webster, Aldridge, and Oden. That's already a nice starting five, and I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled in a vet at SF for some experience or just an upgrade over Webster.

Update: Josh McRoberts was also involved in the deal. How unnecessary.

Snack break.

After returning from my snack, I realized that I didn't have much of a clue of how the rest of the draftees would fare in the NBA. I know Kosta Koufos will be a bust and I like Donte Green. That's about it, it really does become a crap shoot.

Some final more random thoughts:

How worthless was that woman who interviewed the players' moms? What kind of question's could you possibly ask that a sports fan would find relevant? "Your son just became a millionaire, how do you feel? Happy? I don't believe you."

Stephen A. Smith and Stu Scott should have switched places. Stu's better at tossing softball questions to player and listening to Stephen's outlandish statements is always amusing.

Jeff Van Gundy seemed to have a noticeable lisp, did anyone else catch that? Does anyone else read this?

An ominous organ should have been played before the NBA draft, just as it was at the NFL draft.

I was really impressed by the Trailblazers draft. Even though none of their players have stepped on the court, I declare them the winners and will be mailing GM Kevin Pritchard a gold star.

That's all for tonight, I officially have nothing more to say.

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

The Best Argument To Take Derrick Rose You'll Hear

I actually watched the draft lottery, I had nothing better to do. It turned out to be the loudest I would yell for any of my teams in the past year. You see the sports gods punched me square in the crotch this year with a disappointing season from the White Sox, a Michigan team that lost to Appalachian State, the Bears who I'm currently pretending don't exist, and a young Bulls team that mailed it in worse than ESPN's Bill Simmons last year of columns.

So when the Bulls won the first pick, it was the first time I was standing and yelling for a sports team in a while. And I was not yelling "We got the 1!" or "We won the lottery!", I was yelling "We got Rose!". To me it was a foregone conclusion, but since so many people disagree, I'll explain why. Sit back and clap your hands for a head-to-head comparison which oddly hasn't been beaten into the ground at this point!

Scoring: Michael Beasley was a prolific scorer in college and is going to be a prolific scorer in the NBA. He will put up 20-25 a night, it just won't be as an unstoppable low-post presence. Watching him play in college, putting the ball on the blocks and backing opponents down was not his specialty. Beasley prefers to play some of Kevin Garnett's high post game mixing that in with a dominant midrange game and strong drives to the basket. Here's a comprehensive highlight reel: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpyAf0Iz6UY. In the games he took over, think the Kansas game, he did so by pulling his game behind the arc and raining down from above. These are not knocks on him at all, but what the Bulls have been dying for is an Elton Brand or a Tim Duncan. Not a bigger Carmello Anthony or a more athletic Dirk Nowitzki, which is more the mold I see Beasley in. Derrick Rose's scoring fits more of that second banana type role, but he doesn't deserve the pile on that he gets for his jump shot. Even if it is poor, which recent workouts tend to contradict, he's the kind of a kid who would work on it until you respected it. Because he's big, physical, and knows how to work the lane, I see his scoring game comparing to Tony Parker's. He can still take over games and will score 16-18 a night, but he should not be the main scorer night in and night out.
Edge: Beasley.

Playmaking: Michael Beasley does not make his teammates better. He can absolutely put a team on his back, but he does not create better shots for the guys around him. That may be a product of his style of play, neither Dirk nor Anthony seem to make the guys around them that much better, or he may be selfish. I don't know, but the results are pretty clear. A team with inferior players, Wisconsin in the tourney, can double Beasley and his team is sunk. Derrick Rose is the opposite. It doesn't show that well in his stats, but watch the kid play. He drives to the basket and has great court vision, meaning guys like Gordon and Deng will be seeing a lot more open looks. Rose would also allow the Bulls to play a fast break offense that would highlight the strengths of Noah and Tyrus. Are you imagining the dunks that Tyrus throws down on lobs from Rose? Excuse me while I change my pants.
Edge: Rose.

Rebounding: As a PF, Beasley is naturally going to grab more boards than Rose. But they both rebound well for their position. If Rose pulls down 5 or 6 a game, totally possible, the rebounding upgrade tthe Bulls get at point might actually be bigger than what they get at PF. Beasley could also turn around and immediately pull down 12 a game. I don't think he will because he won't have stat padders like Sacramento University making him look Bill Russell. Sorry Sac U., I still plan on being your starting PG if it makes you feel better.
Edge: tie.

Defense: Rose. Not debatable.
Edge: Rose

Personality: There are two questions I consider when talking about NBA players personality: Can you go to war with this guy? And would you want this guy as your wingman when you went out? You can go to war with both players, they both want to win and both guys can carry a team. The second question is what separates the two. If you went to a bar with Derrick, he'd be willing to go over and break the ice for you, set you up for easy jokes, and generally make you look good. If you didn't walk out with a girl on your arm, he'd go over to the corner and literally cry into his beer. Maybe that's extreme, but if you failed it sure as hell wouldn't be Rose's fault. Compare that with Beasley. You and Beasley walk in, he immediately becomes the life of the place. Girls are interested in you as a byproduct of being interested in him. He takes the cream of the crop and you get the leftovers. It's not a terrible system, odds are you have an improved shot at finding someone. But what happens when you walk and the hottest, coolest girl in the bar takes an interest in you over Beasley? Would you be surprised if he came over and tried to steal her? Would you be surprised if he couldn't get her and decided to do something to you that rhymes with schmock flock? What if he decided you couldn't handle it and threw out the dreaded proposition of the "double team"? Is it all that unrealistic? I say no to that and no to a threesome with Michael Beasley (because I can't raise a question like that and not answer it.)
Edge: Rose

So according to my correct analysis, in Beasley you have a bigger Carmello Anthony or a more athletic Dirk Nowitzki. Kid's going to be an all star and might lead a championship team. If you want him to do that though, you need to pair him with someone like Rose. Rose is the kind of player that makes a team go, who makes everyone better, and who put a team on his back to boot. He's Tony Parker with Chris Paul vision. I personally see Rose as being a special player, the kind of player that wins championships. And that is the ultimate goal.